The Bank of England hasn't moved its base rate since May 2025. Mortgage rates went up anyway. That disconnect is the whole story of UK mortgages in 2026 — fixed rates answer to a different master than the headline rate everyone watches.
Where things actually stand
As of the first week of August 2026: the average 2-year fixed rate sits around 5.63%, the 5-year around 5.66%, and the standard variable rate — what you fall onto once a fixed deal expires — around 7.13%. The Bank Rate itself has been held at 3.75% through several consecutive Monetary Policy Committee meetings, most recently on 30 July, and that vote wasn't unanimous: three of nine committee members actually pushed to raise it to 4%, a genuinely hawkish split that's grown since the previous meeting.
So why did fixed rates rise if the base rate didn't move?
Fixed mortgage rates are priced off swap rates — essentially the market's bet on where interest rates are heading over the length of the fix — not the current base rate directly. Renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed energy prices and inflation expectations higher through mid-2026, and that pushed swap rates up with it. Rates that had bottomed out around 4% in January 2026 jumped past 5% within a few months and have held roughly steady since. The base rate never moved. The market's forecast of the future did.
Two years or five: the actual trade-off
A 5-year fix buys payment certainty for longer, but locks you in if rates fall meaningfully during that stretch — breaking a fix early usually triggers an early repayment charge that eats whatever you'd have saved. A 2-year fix keeps you more flexible to remortgage sooner if pricing improves, at the cost of facing an uncertain market again sooner rather than later. There's no universally correct answer here; it comes down to your own tolerance for uncertainty and how much you trust anyone's rate predictions, including this article's.
The remortgage cliff is still landing on people
Millions of homeowners locked in rock-bottom rates during 2020-2021 — some under 2% — and are rolling onto new deals at rates roughly 3 percentage points higher or more. On a typical mortgage, that's a genuinely painful monthly increase, and it's happening to people who haven't borrowed a penny more than before.
If your deal is ending soon
Most lenders let you lock in a new rate up to six months before your current fix expires, often with the option to switch to something cheaper if pricing improves before the old deal actually ends. Worth a conversation with a broker or your existing lender well before the last moment, not after.
See how a given rate translates into your actual monthly payment with the Mortgage Calculator.
A few things people actually ask
Why did mortgage rates rise if the Bank of England base rate stayed the same?
Fixed rates are priced off swap rates — the market's forecast of future interest rates — not the current base rate directly. Renewed Middle East conflict pushed inflation expectations and swap rates higher in 2026, moving fixed rates even though the base rate never changed.
Is the Bank of England likely to raise rates?
Recent votes have grown more hawkish — three of nine committee members pushed to raise the base rate at the most recent meeting, up from fewer dissenters previously — but a rise isn't guaranteed and most economists still expect rates to hold or fall slightly.
Should I lock in a new rate before my current fix ends?
Most lenders let you secure a new rate up to six months in advance, often letting you switch to something cheaper if pricing improves before your old deal actually expires — worth arranging well ahead rather than waiting until the last moment.